We are rapidly approaching my favorite Holiday of the year: Thanksgiving! And, as always it is a great time to consider all we have to be thankful for, even if that doesn’t include a good stock market over the last 2 years. As I like to say though, the market goes up over time, just not all of the time.
In my last blog however, we were optimistic that the end of the year would prove fruitful. So far, those trends are holding up, so we remain “bullish” at least through early 2024. My crystal ball doesn’t go much further out than that! I kid, of course, but leads me to a great point about all of the prognostications and talking heads that fill our airwaves on a constant basis.
The point? It is all just educated guessing. Some guess are more educated than others, but no one, and I mean NO ONE can predict the future. The 2 “headlines” below prove the point quite well (screen shots and then the link to the article is below each). These are 2 separate articles from the same organization (Bloomberg.com) almost exactly 1 year apart. To be clear, I’m not specifically calling out Bloomberg. We could see similar stories on many sites out there. But, the first headline from Oct 17, 2022 references a forecast of 100% chance of recession, within the next year. Uh oh. Well, we certainly know that was wrong. And, the next headline is from Oct 20, 2023, suggesting Economic growth projections were increasing and the odds of recession were decreasing. Imagine getting out of the market last October just b/c of a headline like this, only to see a year later that not only were they wrong, but now they are suggesting faster economic growth? Ouch.
Don’t get me wrong. I have thoughts on the economy and the markets, and I’m not afraid of sharing those. You can look back through the Blogs and find my opinions, right or wrong. But, I’ll never suggest ANYTHING is 100%. Markets and Economics are NOT about certainties. They are about probabilities. And, the best probability I have seen in Investing during my 25 year career is simply that staying in the market over time will result in your best chance of success. So, as the subject of the blog suggests, the best bet is to “ignore the noise” and focus on the long-term growth that asset markets typically deliver over time.
Until next time….Happy Thanksgiving!
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Tracking #505309-2