Justin’s Market Musings | Don’t Fret, Just Yet | October 12, 2023

I know. I feel the same way. This year just seems to have event after event that makes us feel awful. I’m pretty sure the Media does their best to keep it that way. Is it any wonder that consumer sentiment is low? I know we hear it from most of our clients, and although this is somewhat anecdotal, we get the response of “I’m less optimistic” (about the markets and the economy) much more often than “I’m more optimistic.” Again, this isn’t a huge surprise. The globe has dealt with a lot over the last few years, from a Global Pandemic, to a controversial US Presidential election, to a War in Ukraine, to a massive inflationary shock to a Bear Market in 2022. Heck, markets are lower from 2 years ago and are still roughly 10% off of the highs we saw in late 2021. Of course, we can now add the crisis in Israel to the list of worries. Ugh…

Speaking of Markets…yes, the 3rd Quarter was not very good. Specifically, September was rough. You’ll see it on your statements soon enough, if not already. But, don’t forget…this was not entirely unexpected. In late August, we blogged about September historically being a bad month, in fact the worst month of the year. Of course, seasonal tendencies are not guarantees at all. But, the overall weakness in September was not unusual. And, historically it bleeds into the first half of October. But, there is some good news here. All is not gloom and doom!


We can simply look to the same blog published on August 31st to find that help may be right around the corner! After a rough September, markets TEND to finish October in the green, with November and December being second of the best months of the year. Again, seasonal trends are not perfect, but we’d continue to respect these trends as they’ve held up quite well in the past several years. And, these trends get even stronger in the 3rd year of a President’s first term!

So, try to ignore the noise out there. Its bad. We get it. But we are expecting a good finish to the year, which would help all of us feel a bit better.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Tracking #490105-1